by Peter John Lambert , Apolline Marion and John Van Reenen Summary We continue tracking the proportion of UK businesses at-risk of permanently closing, using ONS BICS survey data The proportion of firms at-risk of closure dropped substantially over the 15 month period - from 15% in January 2021 to 5.7% in April 2022 This recovery stalled following the winding up of the furlough scheme at the end of September 2021 Recent global events appear to be increasing business risk, especially amongst SMEs We show these data closely track GDP growth, redundancies, and COVID-related uncertainty Latest Findings The share of businesses who are at risk of failure has fallen to 5.7% in April, according to the Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey (BICS) run by the Office of National Statistics (ONS). This is substantially lower than the peak of 15% at the beginning of 2021. The drop was primarily due to improvements in the outlook of firms with fewer than 50 employees. To study business risk, we focus...
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